Sunday, October 31, 2004

Election Predictions

I doubt there will be anything in the news tommorrow big enough to have to re-factor these; so without further ado, here are the official Pentecostal Gamer Election 2004 Predictions.

Electoral College (Changes from 2000)
Switches from Red to Blue: New Hampshire
Switches from Blue to Red: Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin
Presidential Tally: 306 (Bush) - 232 (Kerry)
Colorado Proportional Vote Referendum Fails

US Senate Predictions (Changes in Party)
Switches from Republican to Democratic: Alaska, Colorado, Illinois
Switches from Democratic to Republican: Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota
Net Change: Republicans +2

US House Predictions
I don't think I care to put the research time necessary to make specific House predictions. As a general prediction, the Republicans will make single digit gains.

Governors
I haven't yet researched this at all. I might decided to do so and make a new post for them tommorrow.

3 Comments:

Blogger david said...

how much and how did you research this? I hope your predictions will be true

November 2, 2004 at 11:23 AM  
Blogger pentecostalgamer said...

Wow -- I guess I need to read my own blog more! I had a comment!

Basically, David, I've spent the last several months researching those predictions. I'm a political news junkie, especially about campaigns. I've spent way too much time at places like RealClearPolitics, Polipundit, Horseraceblog, Electoral Vote, Election Projection and more. Add in also a B.A. Poli Sci, for it's worth (which doesn't seem to be too much).

The predictions were made off of my general impressions of the polls coming in from various states, a strong belief in the efficacy of the 72-hour program, and historical knowledge of previous elections.

Presidentially, I assumed that not many states would change. New Hampshire had Kerry ahead in the polls most of the last year; New Mexico likewise. The three Upper Midwestern states of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were pretty much toss-ups. The first two were very close in 2000 and the third had a very good year in 2002 for the Republicans; I thought the 72-hour program would make up the 1-2% Bush needed in those states.

For the Senate, I felt as though 2002 was a better model than 2000. I figured that most of the close races would fall towards the GOP -- and they did. In fact, two more went GOP than I expected.

November 7, 2004 at 7:47 PM  
Blogger Girly Girl said...

If you want over 18 adults only dating then Swinger Dating is the site for you. Totally free too :)

November 7, 2005 at 6:28 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home